Discussion
Thread (ten posts) making a convincing case for Ukraine winning the war in the next 3-6 months due to an accelerating Russian collapse, caused by … well, that'd be a spoiler.
Go read.
This, happening within months of the AI bubble bursting and taking down the US stock market, is going to make 2025 the pivotal year of the decade. (Forget Trump, he's a side-show.)
https://wargamers.social/@oldladyplays/115365508400226222
There are positive (for the Ukraine) indicators especially in the economic area.
But even broken countries can fight for a very long time if the will is there. And the will of the general population is hard to judge and there are very few indicators pointing to any breaking points soon.
That said: it would be very rational for Russia to make peace. But rationality is at least not their forté at the moment.
Perun did a very interesting assessment of the untenable burn-rate of Russian use of old Soviet-legacy mothballed equipment to enable the invasion.
Long story short; the enormous Soviet-era stores are almost barren, and Russia can't manufacture close to current loss rates.
A Russian crunch is coming.
I'm missing the China support factor in the analysis. China is quite happy to have Russia on its side in the UN and as a resource supplier. They are very reluctant to have it collapse...
The AI bubble collapse is definitely coming, and pessimism is warranted there.
Beware of wishful thinking.
The reference to past examples of military defeat on Russian soil caused by overstretched supply lines is certainly interesting. But I'm skeptical how much we really know about the impact on Russian capabilities on the front lines by the sometimes spectacular deep strikes by Ukraine.
I hope Turkey isn't selling Bayraktar to Russia 🤔
Do we have a utopian/dystopian description of what the collapse of the AI bubble will actually mean in terms of fallout? I've just watched a 60 Minutes bit about the current bubble and a comparison to 1929. And there the CEO of Blackrock states that US pension funds should invest people's 401 pension money in AI. That would ruin a whole generation.
Not that much housing fallout as 2008, but what else except OpenAI going belly-up, which I'd very much appreciate?
It's important for Ukrainian morale to have these, "one more heave" narratives but we should demand evidence. It's our inflation paying to lose this war
Plus the cold fact that your military is what you can pay for and the US is ALSO in for economic collapse (everyone is; the question is when the agricultural collapse bites hard enough, not if) and things start to get interesting.
I don't understand it but these look like huge pieces of a 21st century jigsaw puzzle (energy transition from oil to renewables, end of Moore's Law hitting tech).
Biden was an asshole for stopping UKR hit oil infra in case it drove up oil prices…
Everyone forgets #India. There's a plausible case to be made that India just waits out the now inevitable demographic timebomb that has been ticking away for years in the Russian Federation, and just takes over the Russian Far East by dint of being the majority people left there.
I first came across this idea via a random recommendation of #ElviraBary, but xe is not the only person talking about this.
The same way that it is already working. Depending from whose figures you believe anywhere between 70 thousand (Russian labour ministry) and 1 million (Ural Chamber of Commerce and Industry) Indian workers will have gone to Russia by the end of this year. Whilst Russia has had a mass exodus and is set to suffer its millionth war casualty soon by many reports.
But crypto and AI will let behind them huge unusable datacenters with their power source. Suddenly unused.
Electricity will become as cheap as air or even have negative prices on some highly congested network.
Burned fuel electricity will be stopped but renewable can’t be stopped…
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