This Thursday in Caerphilly a by-election will reveal the extent of disquiet with Labour in Wales; polling suggests that the election has become a contest between Plaid Cymru & ReformUK, with Labour languishing in third position.
Governing parties often lose by-elections on low turnouts so not to much should be read into Thursday's result, but equally it will be instructive whether the Welsh Nationalists are able to see off the carpet baggers of Reform?